서울대학교 아시아연구소 온라인 매거진

The shifting dynamics of amity and enmity in the Middle East: analysing the 2023 Israel-Hamas war through the framework of regional security complex theory

이 글은 이스라엘-팔레스타인 갈등 속에서 걸프 국가들이 어떻게 우호와 적대의 인식을 변화시켜 왔는지를 분석한다. 이란의 부상과 아랍의 봄 이후, 걸프 국가는 생존 전략으로 이스라엘과의 관계 정상화를 모색했으나, 2023년 하마스의 공격 이후 다시 여론의 적대감이 강화되었다. 그 결과, 걸프 국가들은 이스라엘과의 관계 설정에서 신중한 관망 태도를 취하고 있다.

The shifting dynamics of amity and enmity in the Middle East: analysing the 2023 Israel-Hamas war through the framework of regional security complex theory

안소연(아시아연구소 서아시아센터 공동연구원)

Asian Journal of Political Science, Vol. 33, No. 2

이스라엘팔레스타인 갈등을 둘러싼 우호와 적대의 인식 변화는 걸프 국가들의 정치적 태도에 어떤 영향을 미치고 있는가?

In Middle Eastern regional politics, the Israel-Palestine conflict has been a key factor in shaping political dynamics. During the establishment of Israel, Arab countries, including the Gulf states, expressed support for the Palestinian cause, leading to the expansion of anti-Israel sentiment. However, following the Iranian Islamic Revolution in 1979, the focus of hostility gradually shifted towards Iran. With the Arab Spring further amplifying Iran’s influence, the Gulf states began to explore the possibility of normalizing relations with Israel as a new strategy for survival. This rapidly changing political landscape posed a crisis for Hamas, culminating in Hamas’s attack on Israel in October 2023. This study, based on Buzan’s Regional Security Complex Theory, aims to examine how the changing perceptions of amity and enmity surrounding the Israel-Palestine conflict are reflected in the political attitudes of the Gulf states. The Gulf monarchies continue to consider the potential benefits of normalizing relations with Israel. However, given that hostility once again dominates public sentiment, these states are merely observing the situation. This conflict has confirmed that emotional factors, such as amity and enmity, still play a significant role in shaping the Middle Eastern regional security complex.

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